Was Richmond that Bad?
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When you turn on Monday’s “The Morning Drive” on SiriusXM NASCAR Channel 90 and hear “America’s Crew Chief” Larry McReynolds lead into his show “On Track” saying he’d watched every one of the 1150 laps run in all three series at Richmond and then shifts to “Was it one of the best Richmond race weekends we’ve had? No. No. We have to be candid. We have to be honest…” it’s hard not to think “oh-oh”.
The Richmond 2020 Cup race held lots of promise. A short track - “The Action Track.” The second race in Round One of the Playoffs. Win and punch your ticket into the Round of Twelve. Another racing surface that is hard on tires. Lap time fall off is anticipated and should factor in on the race strategy.
Additionally, the race had several interesting story lines. Because of post-race penalties at Darlington, Clint Bowyer and Kyle Busch both lost their crew chiefs for the race. Kyle had an additional setback being forced to start at the rear of the 38-car field because his car failed pre-race inspection twice. Ryan Blaney, Matt DiBenedetto, Cole Custer, Aric Almirola, and Bowyer were all on or below the Playoff Points cutoff line to advance to the next round. The Busch brothers, William Byron, Austin Dillon, and Chase Elliot were less than 10 points above that line.
There was a lot on the line. A lot to gain. A lot to lose.
So, let’s review Richmond and see if we can figure out why Larry Mac said what he said about the race weekend.
NASCAR switched things up for this Richmond race. The teams raced a different car at Richmond this year-the higher horsepower/lower downforce package. They also changed the race format from a 100 lap-100 lap-200 lap Stage break format to a 80-155-165 lap format. These different Stage breakdowns required pit stops in Stages 2 and 3 this year. Finally, Goodyear brought the same tire they used at New Hampshire.
With all the changes NASCAR got the same results as New Hampshire. New Hampshire race winner Brad Keselowski found himself in Victory Lane at Richmond for his fourth win of the season and the 34th of his Cup career. Like New Hampshire, Denny Hamlin won the first Stage and Keselowski won Stage Two and the race. Keselowski again led the race the most laps - four times for 192 laps or 48% of the race. He beat second place, Martin Truex, Jr. by 1.568 second margin.
The race had three cautions for 21 laps. This is the minimum required for the race - the competition caution and two Stage breaks. There were no cautions for mechanical issues, incidents, or crashes. Finally, NASCAR Loop data showed the race had 2531 green flag passes (or 6.7 per green flag lap).
With all of this, NASCAR Senior Vice President of Competition, Steve Miller assessment of the Richmond Cup Race was “intriguing”. Overall fan reaction was mixed. “The Athletic” writer, Jeff Gluck’s “Was this a Good Race” Twitter Poll, showed that only 44.3% of almost 16 thousand voting race fans said it was a good race.
Let’s see what the Lead Change Summary and Scorecard had to say about the 2020 version of the Federated Auto Parts 400.
RICHMOND ANALYSIS
Using NASCAR’s Cumulative Report, Pit Selection chart and Race Timeline to create the Lead Change Summary and Lead Change Scorecard. These evaluate each of the lead changes giving the fans a clear breakdown of where the lead change occurred (on the track or in the pits-during racing or under caution) and how the lead change occurred. Lead changes are identified by one of eight reasons –
Under caution the lead can change due to
- Leader Pits-Yellow
- Won Race Off pit road
- Leader Penalized
- Leader Pits-Green
- Leader Crashed from Lead
- Pass on Start (first three laps of race)
- Pass on Restart (first three laps after restart)
- Pass on Track (competitor passes leader to take the lead)
Richmond had the following nine drivers who lead one or more laps in the 400-lap race. Winner Brad Keselowski lead 192 laps, almost four times more laps than the next closest driver, Austin Dillon, who lead the field for 55 laps. Here is the leader breakdown:
With the leaders identified, let’s see how the race unfolded with the Lead Change Summary
That resulted in the following Lead Change Scorecard
The Scorecard tells the following story about the race. There were 19 lead changes for the race, four which happened under caution, leaving 15 lead changes occurring while racing under green. Of those 15 changes, one occurred on one of the three restarts after the caution flag stops and six were a result of the leader relinquishing the lead to go to the pits for service. In the 379 green flag laps for the race, there were EIGHT lead changes by a competitor passing the leader during green to take the lead.
Here is the expanded Scorecard broken down by Stages:
Here is the expanded Scorecard broken down by Stages:
With this expanded view you see that the action at the front of the field increased as the race went on. This was due in part to the Stage breakdowns. Last year the race’s three Stages were divided 100 laps-100 laps-200 laps. This year, the Stage breaks were 80-155-165. This different Stage breakdowns resulted in pit stops being required in Stages 2 and 3 this year which helped double the number of lead changes from last year, from 9 to 19.
The race ran “clean and green” with no cautions other than the required Competition Caution and two Stage Breaks. The lack of cautions played havoc with race strategies as some were on a two stop strategy in the last Stage, while others were running a one-stop Stage, conserving tires while awaiting that late race caution that unfortunately never came.
The fans saw their first green flag pass for the lead twenty laps into the race and saw a total of eight passes for the race, with the last being the winning pass 47 laps from the end of the race.
The race had some other twists and turns. It was the first race we’ve analyzed where a lead change occurred as a result of the leader getting penalized for a pit road infraction. After Denny Hamlin won the first Stage, he and Austin Dillon led the field onto pit road for service, Hamlin won the race off and both he and Dillon were caught speeding. Both had to return to pit road to serve a penalty for speeding and gave the lead up to Joey Logano.
Penalties factored into the race but some drivers were able to overcome them. Dillon was able to overcome the speeding penalty and get back up front by lap 182 before finishing fourth. Kevin Harvick went two laps down due to a commitment box violation on lap 185 but by lap 227 had gotten back on the lead lap and by lap 347 found himself in the lead. He eventually finished 7th. Kyle Busch, who had to start in the rear due to pre-race inspection issues worked his way to the lead by lap 343 and finished 6th. However, Hamlin never saw the lead again after the lap 84 pit road speeding penalty.
Pit strategy also played a role in the race as it often does at Richmond. Several teams entered Stages 2 and 3 using a more aggressive two stop strategy. In it, they traded the time lost for an extra stop for the time gained by being on newer tires longer. Other teams entered those stages taking a more conservative, one stop approach which involved running slightly slower to save tires. They counted on a one green flag stop with hopes that a late race caution would allow them to take on another set of new tires under caution. If successful they could gain considerable track position.
Unfortunately, in this race those much needed late-race caution flags never materialized. As the green flags laps ticked away, the “one-stoppers” had to abandon their strategy and go to two stops just to keep up with the “two-stoppers’ on fresher tires. So, tire strategy played a role in the number of lead changes that took place, especially in the final two stages.
The lack of cautions flags factored in in several other ways. The fewer cautions means fewer race restarts. Because so many lead changes occur in the first three laps after a restart, that reduction in restarts reduced the chances for passes for the lead. Also, fewer cautions resulted in fewer “Lucky Dogs” and “Wave Arounds” and reduced the number of cars on the lead lap. This race is saw only 11 of the 37 cars running at the end on the lead lap.
From a Playoff perspective, mistakes and poor performance dug the hole and little deeper for some of the qualifiers and have placed DiBenedetto and Blaney in a near must win situation to keep their playoff hopes alive. Luckily, both run well at Bristol, the cut-off race. Custer and Byron are going to need stellar performances on the half-mile Saturday night.
So, after the dust settled and the various numbers been looked at, was Richmond a “bad” race?
Let’s look at one more set of numbers – the 2019 Richmond race.
Because the 2019 Timeline is no longer available we will only be able to compare some of the numbers. See what you think –
The race ran “clean and green” with no cautions other than the required Competition Caution and two Stage Breaks. The lack of cautions played havoc with race strategies as some were on a two stop strategy in the last Stage, while others were running a one-stop Stage, conserving tires while awaiting that late race caution that unfortunately never came.
The fans saw their first green flag pass for the lead twenty laps into the race and saw a total of eight passes for the race, with the last being the winning pass 47 laps from the end of the race.
The race had some other twists and turns. It was the first race we’ve analyzed where a lead change occurred as a result of the leader getting penalized for a pit road infraction. After Denny Hamlin won the first Stage, he and Austin Dillon led the field onto pit road for service, Hamlin won the race off and both he and Dillon were caught speeding. Both had to return to pit road to serve a penalty for speeding and gave the lead up to Joey Logano.
Penalties factored into the race but some drivers were able to overcome them. Dillon was able to overcome the speeding penalty and get back up front by lap 182 before finishing fourth. Kevin Harvick went two laps down due to a commitment box violation on lap 185 but by lap 227 had gotten back on the lead lap and by lap 347 found himself in the lead. He eventually finished 7th. Kyle Busch, who had to start in the rear due to pre-race inspection issues worked his way to the lead by lap 343 and finished 6th. However, Hamlin never saw the lead again after the lap 84 pit road speeding penalty.
Pit strategy also played a role in the race as it often does at Richmond. Several teams entered Stages 2 and 3 using a more aggressive two stop strategy. In it, they traded the time lost for an extra stop for the time gained by being on newer tires longer. Other teams entered those stages taking a more conservative, one stop approach which involved running slightly slower to save tires. They counted on a one green flag stop with hopes that a late race caution would allow them to take on another set of new tires under caution. If successful they could gain considerable track position.
Unfortunately, in this race those much needed late-race caution flags never materialized. As the green flags laps ticked away, the “one-stoppers” had to abandon their strategy and go to two stops just to keep up with the “two-stoppers’ on fresher tires. So, tire strategy played a role in the number of lead changes that took place, especially in the final two stages.
The lack of cautions flags factored in in several other ways. The fewer cautions means fewer race restarts. Because so many lead changes occur in the first three laps after a restart, that reduction in restarts reduced the chances for passes for the lead. Also, fewer cautions resulted in fewer “Lucky Dogs” and “Wave Arounds” and reduced the number of cars on the lead lap. This race is saw only 11 of the 37 cars running at the end on the lead lap.
From a Playoff perspective, mistakes and poor performance dug the hole and little deeper for some of the qualifiers and have placed DiBenedetto and Blaney in a near must win situation to keep their playoff hopes alive. Luckily, both run well at Bristol, the cut-off race. Custer and Byron are going to need stellar performances on the half-mile Saturday night.
So, after the dust settled and the various numbers been looked at, was Richmond a “bad” race?
Let’s look at one more set of numbers – the 2019 Richmond race.
Because the 2019 Timeline is no longer available we will only be able to compare some of the numbers. See what you think –
Each fan has their own expectations as to what makes a good race. All week, we have heard fans speak out and say the lack of caution flags made Richmond a bad race… but the 2020 race had two fewer cautions but produced 13 more lead changes. 2020 had more passes on track than 2019 had total passes (8 to 6). There were three times more leaders in 2020 than in 2019.
Good race? Bad race? Again, each fan can make that decision. Personally, I liked the outcome with the #2 winning the race. Overall, I didn’t think it was a good race as I was expecting more passes on track. To me, passes on track is racing and short tracks should be all about racing and should be able to produce better racing. Eight passes over 379 green flag laps, in my opinion is not good.
Maybe that’s why Larry Mac assessed Richmond with “Was it one of the best Richmond race weekends we’ve had? No. No. We have to be candid. We have to be honest…”
Couple of things I know for sure… I’d rather watch this year’s race than a 6-lead change 2019 race and racing at Richmond has a ways to go to be a good race for me.
Hopefully, this is a step in the right direction.
Good race? Bad race? Again, each fan can make that decision. Personally, I liked the outcome with the #2 winning the race. Overall, I didn’t think it was a good race as I was expecting more passes on track. To me, passes on track is racing and short tracks should be all about racing and should be able to produce better racing. Eight passes over 379 green flag laps, in my opinion is not good.
Maybe that’s why Larry Mac assessed Richmond with “Was it one of the best Richmond race weekends we’ve had? No. No. We have to be candid. We have to be honest…”
Couple of things I know for sure… I’d rather watch this year’s race than a 6-lead change 2019 race and racing at Richmond has a ways to go to be a good race for me.
Hopefully, this is a step in the right direction.