The Perfect Storm
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It
was a storm. A perfect storm.
OK,
maybe not as perfect as THE perfect one in 1979, but close enough.
You
remember the one in ‘79? The blizzard
that had the East coast socked in and all anyone could do was watch TV? The only thing that was on that day was the
Daytona 500. CBS was covering it live,
flag to flag. The race ended with a last
lap crash between the leaders going for the win. The broadcast ended with an infield
fight. This perfect storm started the change
of NASCAR from a sleepy regional sport to an exciting national sport that would
grow to the second favorite sport, behind the 800 pound gorilla, the NFL.
This
storm had all the trappings to be a similar one, possibly one even greater.
There
was a storm-Hurricane Nate. He’d come
visiting the Gulf Coast on Saturday and had much of the Southeast, Ohio Valley
and East Coast looking at rain - heavy rain.
Even the start time of the race was moved up as the track might get a
visit from Nate. Though not a blizzard,
the unfavorable weather conditions would surely keep fans indoors and you’d
think spending some time in front of the TV.
Plus,
the 800 pound gorilla, the NFL was in trouble as the “kneeling during the
National Anthem” protests by their players had resulted in a severe backlash
among their fans. Many were burning
their jerseys, trashing their souvenirs, selling their tickets, canceling their
TV packages and overall refusing to watch another game. Sports bars stopped showing the games. Surely they would need something to watch in
its place. The President even pointed
the disgruntled fans in our direction noting our “players” stand during the
Anthem. You would think there would be
enough to see a bump in viewership.
It
was set up perfectly-the fall race at one of the Crown Jewel tracks, the Bank
of America 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
The fourth race of the Playoffs. The first race after the first round of
elimination. Four had just fallen. The remaining twelve were now feeling the
heat. It was also Dale Jr.’s last race
at his home track. Plenty of story lines
to build interest and get people to tune in wouldn't you think?
CMS
was bringing out the PJ1 to juice the track in hopes of improving the racing on
the mile-and-a-half-er. Television coverage was moved to NBC. If someone had a television they could tune
in and see what it was all about.
Everything
pointed to a positive weekend for television ratings. No excuses.
Could it be set up any better?
On
Friday the final ratings read as follows:
UPDATE: The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs from Charlotte
earned a 1.8 rating and 2.9 million viewers on the NBC broadcast network last
Sunday, down 42% in ratings and 44% in viewership from
2014 on ESPN, the last time the race was run on the day it was scheduled (3.1,
5.1M).
Compared
to last year - when the race was postponed a day due to rain and rescheduled
for the same Sunday afternoon timeslot - ratings fell 14% from a 2.1
and viewership 11% from 3.2 million. Postponed races typically
pull much lower numbers than those that are run as scheduled, but last year's
had the advantage of airing on both NBC and NBCSN.
Well,
I don't know about you but that wasn't quite what I expected. I sure thought with all the favorable factors
brought on by Nate’s drenching rain, the NFL and Junior, we would see something
different. Flat would have been
nice. Uptick even better. But a double digit drop?
I’m
sure there is an explanation or even multiple reasons for this. Maybe there is a significant overlap between
NASCAR fans and NFL fans so there was never a chance for movement from one to
the other. Maybe the torrential rain
didn't keep folks in front of their TVs.
Or maybe there was an influx of new viewers who made these dismal
numbers even better than they could have been had they not showed up.
I
don't know. If I did I’d tell you. I guarantee there is someone in the
Sanctioning Body who knows, but they aren't telling. Not a word… or at least not one that I’ve
heard. The folks who are in a position
to get answers aren't asking. From where
I’m typing though it doesn't look good.
Guess
we’ll all just glide down in silence together, dropping at a rate of 10-12% a
year. Eventually, it’ll turn… or bottom
out. Then we can all talk about it
again... I guess.
Till
then I’ll keep watching races to do my share to keep the viewership numbers up…
and waiting for the next perfect storm.
There seems to be one a’brewing, just off the
coast of Daytona. It's a slow
mover. Landfall is not predicted until
early next season. Unlike this last one,
there won't be a Nate or disgruntled fans of a sizable ape to help out.
Instead,
it might the growing list of absences of familiar faces that makes up this
storm. Beginning last season, between
Tony Stewart’s retirement, Jeff Gordon’s “re-retirement” after subbing for the
injured Dale Jr., Carl Edwards’ pre-season “retirement”, Greg Biffle’s MIA and Junior’s impending retirement, the Cup
Series has lost a staggering 215 wins, 7 Championships and the 14-time Most
Popular Driver.
Another
way to look at it is of the drivers on the 2015 active drivers win list, the
first, third, ninth, tenth and twelfth-ranked drivers are gone next
season. From that list, 5th-ranked
driver Matt Kenseth has no ride announced for 2018 and the 8th-ranked
and 2017 Daytona 500 winner, Kurt Busch still does not have a contract. So if Matt leaves Cup to drive a school bus
and Kurt is forced to the sidelines that's another 67 wins and two more
Championships gone. Any way you cut it,
that’s a bunch of really good drivers who know how to get to Victory Lane that will
be gone. These numbers may be
unprecedented.
Couple
that with the ever popular Danica Patrick losing her ride and you have a lot of
fans, many long-term ones, who won't have their driver to pull for on Race Day
next season.
The
question then becomes how many of their fans will use this opportunity to exit
the sport and how many will find someone else to pull for and stay on-board for
the on-going viewership glide down?
That, race fans, will determine if when it comes to discussions of the
2018 TV viewer numbers, do we truly have a Category Five perfect storm bearing
down on us or is it all just a “topical” depression?
Only
time will tell.
One
thing is for sure… if Jim Cantore is named Grand Marshal for the 2018 Daytona
500 you might want to tighten those belts, hunker down and hang on.
This
might be a rough one.