Lead Change Scorecard - Darlington
|
|
In the first installment of the Lead Change Scorecard, I promised to follow up with Scorecards for the Daytona regular season finale and the New Hampshire, Michigan Double Header and Daytona Road Course. Those are in the works, but after hearing all the comments about the Playoff opener-the Cook-Out Southern 500 from Darlington, I decided to move that one to the front. The rest are coming though.
Darlington. The Lady in Black. The Track Too Tough to Tame. Throwback Sunday. The 71st running of the Southern 500. The Playoff Kickoff. Sunday Night under the Lights. An old track surface that eats Goodyears like I eat Oreos. Everything NASCAR Cup Fans could want.
367 Laps later, regular season winner, Kevin Harvick was in Victory Lane for his eighth win of the season. This was his 57th career Cup win which moved him into 9th place on the all-time win list, second on the active driver list and one ahead of 10th place Kyle Busch.
Harvick led 32 laps including the final 13 for the win, edging Austin Dillon by .343 seconds. There were 18 Lead Changes among six drivers. Martin Truex, Jr. led the most laps, 186 or 53.4% of the race on his way to winning Stages 1 and 2. The race was slowed by seven caution flags for 34 laps.
NASCAR Loop data showed the race had 2904 green flag passes (or 8.7 per green flag lap) and the overall fan reaction on Monday’s media was it was a great race filled with lots of action.
Let’s see what the Lead Change Summary and Scorecard had to say about the 2020 version of the Southern 500.
DARLINGTON ANALYSIS
For fans just tuning in, last week we presented the Lead Change Summary and Lead Change Scorecard to give fans another way to look at the race. Using NASCAR’s Cumulative Report, Pit Selection chart and Race Timeline to evaluate each of the lead changes, the Summary and Scorecard gives the fan a clear breakdown of where the lead change occurred (on the track or in the pits-during racing or under caution) and how it occurred. If you recall from the initial presentation, we identify lead changes by one of eight reasons –
Under caution the lead can change due to
So, let’s see how Darlington shook out.
Based on reader comments, a breakdown of the leaders will be included. Casual fans noted that it would be helpful in interpreting the Lead Change Summary if the leaders and their car numbers were included, so the following is a modified version of what is on NASCAR’s Cumulative Report.
Darlington. The Lady in Black. The Track Too Tough to Tame. Throwback Sunday. The 71st running of the Southern 500. The Playoff Kickoff. Sunday Night under the Lights. An old track surface that eats Goodyears like I eat Oreos. Everything NASCAR Cup Fans could want.
367 Laps later, regular season winner, Kevin Harvick was in Victory Lane for his eighth win of the season. This was his 57th career Cup win which moved him into 9th place on the all-time win list, second on the active driver list and one ahead of 10th place Kyle Busch.
Harvick led 32 laps including the final 13 for the win, edging Austin Dillon by .343 seconds. There were 18 Lead Changes among six drivers. Martin Truex, Jr. led the most laps, 186 or 53.4% of the race on his way to winning Stages 1 and 2. The race was slowed by seven caution flags for 34 laps.
NASCAR Loop data showed the race had 2904 green flag passes (or 8.7 per green flag lap) and the overall fan reaction on Monday’s media was it was a great race filled with lots of action.
Let’s see what the Lead Change Summary and Scorecard had to say about the 2020 version of the Southern 500.
DARLINGTON ANALYSIS
For fans just tuning in, last week we presented the Lead Change Summary and Lead Change Scorecard to give fans another way to look at the race. Using NASCAR’s Cumulative Report, Pit Selection chart and Race Timeline to evaluate each of the lead changes, the Summary and Scorecard gives the fan a clear breakdown of where the lead change occurred (on the track or in the pits-during racing or under caution) and how it occurred. If you recall from the initial presentation, we identify lead changes by one of eight reasons –
Under caution the lead can change due to
- Leader Pits-Yellow
- Won Race Off pit road
- Leader Penalized
- Leader Pits-Green
- Leader Crashed from Lead
- Pass on Start (first three laps of race)
- Pass on Restart (first three laps after restart)
- Pass on Track (competitor passes leader to take the lead)
So, let’s see how Darlington shook out.
Based on reader comments, a breakdown of the leaders will be included. Casual fans noted that it would be helpful in interpreting the Lead Change Summary if the leaders and their car numbers were included, so the following is a modified version of what is on NASCAR’s Cumulative Report.
The modifications are the addition of the LC #’s column. This is the Lead Change numbers that correspond to the Lead Chang numbers in the Lead Change Summary. For example, Martin Truex, Jr. led five times-Lead Change 5, 7, 11, 13 and 17. To differentiate between green flag lead changes and caution flag lead changes the caution flag lead changes are in parentheses. So, in this race, Truex, Jr. got the lead four out of five times during caution.
Another modification is the winning driver is bolded, along with the winning Lead Change number. At a glance you can see that Kevin Harvick, who ranked third in laps lead won the race with three lead changes, with the winning pass being the 18th of the race.
So now we know the leaders, let’s see how the race unfolded with the Lead Change Summary.
Another modification is the winning driver is bolded, along with the winning Lead Change number. At a glance you can see that Kevin Harvick, who ranked third in laps lead won the race with three lead changes, with the winning pass being the 18th of the race.
So now we know the leaders, let’s see how the race unfolded with the Lead Change Summary.
That resulted in the following Lead Change Scorecard
The Scorecard tells the following story about the race. There were 18 lead changes, 8 which happened under caution, leaving 10 lead changes occurring while racing under green. Of those 10 changes, 9 were a result not from a competitor passing the leader, but the leader relinquishing the lead to go to the pits for service. In the 333 green flag laps for the race, there was only ONE lead change by a competitor passing the leader to take the lead – and that was Martin Truex, Jr.’s lap 353 pass of Chase Elliott that resulted in contact that put both in the wall. Truex, Jr. completed the ill-executed pass, and both continued on with the lead change being completed when Truex, Jr. made it back to the Start/Finish Line. Truex, Jr. held the lead two laps until he had to pit from the lead to replace tires damaged in the pass. This allowed Kevin Harvick to take the lead and lead the final 13 laps for his eighth win of the season.
The Southern 500. The Playoff Kickoff. One pass on track for the lead in 333 green flag laps of racing.
Some of the more seasoned fans asked for a Scorecard broken down by Stages to help get a feel how the Stage breaks may have affected the race. Here is an expanded Scorecard
The Southern 500. The Playoff Kickoff. One pass on track for the lead in 333 green flag laps of racing.
Some of the more seasoned fans asked for a Scorecard broken down by Stages to help get a feel how the Stage breaks may have affected the race. Here is an expanded Scorecard
With this expanded view you see that the action at the front was pretty consistent throughout the Stages. Note all the lead changes in Stages 1 and 2 were a result of the leader pitting and giving up the lead, not getting raced for it. There were no back and forth battles. In each case strategy and service schedules dictated the leader pull over and give up the lead to someone else.
Keep in mind, it wasn’t until lap 353 that fans saw a racing lead change.
Also note that the track that is known as “The Track Too Tough to Tame” was hardly that. There were seven cautions – one for a competition caution, two for Stage Conclusions, two for debris. The remaining two-a half spin by Bubba Wallace and Corey LaJoie hitting the Turn One wall were not a result of the “Lady in Black” biting them, but mechanical or driver errors.
Taking a closer look at the lead changes under caution shows that four of those eight lead changes were what we referred to in the initial article as “Positional” lead changes. These are lead changes or an exchange of lead changes that occur under caution for no other reason than where the leader’s pit stall is located in relationship to the other competitors. Here is a diagram that explains how two lead changes occurred during the second caution of the race.
Keep in mind, it wasn’t until lap 353 that fans saw a racing lead change.
Also note that the track that is known as “The Track Too Tough to Tame” was hardly that. There were seven cautions – one for a competition caution, two for Stage Conclusions, two for debris. The remaining two-a half spin by Bubba Wallace and Corey LaJoie hitting the Turn One wall were not a result of the “Lady in Black” biting them, but mechanical or driver errors.
Taking a closer look at the lead changes under caution shows that four of those eight lead changes were what we referred to in the initial article as “Positional” lead changes. These are lead changes or an exchange of lead changes that occur under caution for no other reason than where the leader’s pit stall is located in relationship to the other competitors. Here is a diagram that explains how two lead changes occurred during the second caution of the race.
Note the difference between this type of stop and the caution at the end of Run #7 when the leader was #9 who had the first pit stall. Pitting in Stall 1, he took the caution flag, led the field across the S/F Line, pitted, returned to the track in the lead and no lead change resulted.
Long way to say, pit location can inflate the lead change numbers and, in this race, it played a role.
A final note on the caution flag lead changes – only one lead change was a result of “winning the race off” of pit road – or actually passing the field while under caution. That was on Lead Change #13, when Martin Truex, Jr. beat the field off of pit road during the sixth pit stop.
So, for the race, there were actually two competitive passes – one under caution and one on the track under green and Martin Truex, Jr. made both of those passes.
In other races, when the field is bunched up for Start or Restarts it has produced lead changes. The field was bunched up on eight different occasions. This produced some side by side action at the front during the first lap of the restart but never resulted in a lead change. With the outside lane being the preferred line around the track, after turns one and two, the race wasn’t for the lead but the cars on the inside racing to get in line on the top. As a result, no lead changes occurred during Starts and Restarts.
Bottom Line-the Southern 500 had eighteen lead changes. One was a green flag pass on track that occurred on the track under green 353 laps into a 367-lap race. One in the pits under caution. The remaining sixteen were a result of the leader pitting and relinquishing the lead to a competitor.
This begs the question – If a one-pass Southern 500 is an outstanding race, what would a two-pass race be?
Long way to say, pit location can inflate the lead change numbers and, in this race, it played a role.
A final note on the caution flag lead changes – only one lead change was a result of “winning the race off” of pit road – or actually passing the field while under caution. That was on Lead Change #13, when Martin Truex, Jr. beat the field off of pit road during the sixth pit stop.
So, for the race, there were actually two competitive passes – one under caution and one on the track under green and Martin Truex, Jr. made both of those passes.
In other races, when the field is bunched up for Start or Restarts it has produced lead changes. The field was bunched up on eight different occasions. This produced some side by side action at the front during the first lap of the restart but never resulted in a lead change. With the outside lane being the preferred line around the track, after turns one and two, the race wasn’t for the lead but the cars on the inside racing to get in line on the top. As a result, no lead changes occurred during Starts and Restarts.
Bottom Line-the Southern 500 had eighteen lead changes. One was a green flag pass on track that occurred on the track under green 353 laps into a 367-lap race. One in the pits under caution. The remaining sixteen were a result of the leader pitting and relinquishing the lead to a competitor.
This begs the question – If a one-pass Southern 500 is an outstanding race, what would a two-pass race be?