Daytona 500 and the Four Laws
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The
last article entitled “Three
Laws ~ Plus a New One” discussed how Four Laws apply to NASCAR. With the 2020 season underway it didn’t take
long to see how each came into play.
Let’s review and see how the Four Laws applied to 2020 edition of The
Great American Race-
Law
#1- The buyer not the seller determines the worth of any product.
A
sellout crowd decided that the 62nd running of the Daytona 500 was worth
whatever they paid (tickets, lodging, travel, eats and other expenses) to get
there and be in their seats for the start of Sunday’s race. I’d like to report how many that was but
since attendance is no longer reported except on a pass(sellout)/fail(silence)
basis let’s just go with a whole bunch thought whatever they paid to be there
was well worth it.
11.193
million viewers thought their time was worth watching the initial tune-in. That was 32% more than last year. 10.935 million decided the first 20 laps of
racing was worth their time.
Then
the rains came. The race was postponed
to Monday at 4:00 PM. This changed the
cost of the product for a lot of people.
For fans in the stands, another overnight stay, more food, for some a
missed day from work, etc. drove up the cost.
An eyeball estimate of 40%-maybe 50% decided that those costs were still
worth it and returned to their seats the next day to see the final 180
laps. The rest who decided it wasn’t
worth it for whatever reason(s)-maybe they chose to finish watching it on TV
which saw the remainder of the race that now 7 million viewers decided was
worth their time to watch.
This
produced an average of 9.184 million viewers and was up overall 19% over last
year’s broadcast per Adam Stern. This
had to make the folks at the Beach happy.
But
we see how the rain changed the worth of the product as fans made their
decision whether to buy the remainder of the race, be it in attendance or
viewership? They chose. They determine the worth. It is something that cannot be overlooked.
Law
2 -A body either remains at rest or continues to move, unless acted upon by an
outside force.
We
saw lots of movement with another sellout crowd. 11 million plus viewers tuned in at the start
is more movement than we have seen in years.
What outside force caused all the bodies to move? How much that force can be attributed to the
laundry list of changes NASCAR implemented?
How much can be attributed to the “Trump Bump” that resulted by having
the President in attendance for pre-race and the start of the race? How much of it was the “Barstool
Effect”? They say significant.
Ma
Nature was a negative outside force as the rain brought millions of viewers to
rest-neither returning to the track nor tuning back in when the racing resumed
on Monday.
Tuesday
saw another huge spike in viewership for the weekly racing shows NASCAR America
and Race Hub as fans and non-fans alike were seeking out any information they
could find on Ryan Newman’s medical condition.
We all know the outside force that created that movement.
I
think it’s safe to say, there were numerous outside forces that caused the
major positive movement of bodies the sport experienced for this race. How much-time will soon tell as the Series
progresses through the season and becomes increasingly dependent on Product and
Coverage of the Product for force. Can
those two build upon the momentum created by these outside forces? All we can do is watch and see.
Law
#3 - Good Coverage can't make a bad race good, but Bad Coverage can make a good
race bad.
I
was on the road and away from the TV this weekend so saw none of the race. I did watch the various replays on YouTube
and one takeaway is the two-man booth seemed to be less “competitive” and more
“race-centric” which is a step in the right direction. The broadcast booth did seem lost at the
finish of the race, not sure if the caution flag ended the race or not.
More
on observations from the YouTube replays in the next point.
Law
4 - “The law of unintended consequences is the only real law of history.”
This
is the newest Law and the Daytona 500 and its
aftermath provided plenty of examples.
Here are just a few-
This
was the first Daytona 500 with tapered spacers.
Previously, engines were restricted through the use of restrictor
plates.
Intended
Consequence: Slow the cars down...
hopefully below “take-off” speed.
Unintended
Consequences: Speeds soared over 200 mph. Restrictor plates came in a variety of sizes
that gave NASCAR increased “adjustablity” to reduce speeds. With just two tapered spacer sizes, NASCAR
and the competitors were left with one choice and flirt with the dreaded
lift-off speed. “It is what it is”
This
horsepower/aero package created racing where two or more cars could hook up to
get a run on cars ahead to complete a pass.
This resulted in quick closing rates between passers and the passee.
Intended
Consequence: Exciting racing with lots
of passing
Unintended
Consequences: One or more cars pushing
another was the only way to get a run and pass.
Blocking was the only way to stop a run.
Quick closing rates caused some to misjudge their blocks. When that occurred the results were not
pretty.
NASCAR
found itself on the last lap of a second attempted Green-White-Checkered
Finish. Chase Elliott, running mid-pack, spins going into Turn One. There is smoke. There are other cars around. There is chance of debris. Elliott pulls away and resumes the race. NASCAR allows the race to continue so the
remaining cars can race to the Green Flag finish.
Intended
Consequence: Green Flag Finish. That’s what the fans expect and want to see.
Unintended
Consequences: The finish we got. Everyone knows what that was.
Down
the backstretch, Ryan Blaney pushes Ryan Newman past Denny Hamlin to the
lead. Once Newman was in the lead though
Hamlin side drafts the trailing Blaney, slows him separating him from
Newman. This slows Newman and allows
Hamlin to get on Blaney’s bumper to push him and give him a chance for the win.
Intended
Consequence: Blaney and Hamlin get a run
for a chance to win.
Unintended
Consequence: They have a run on one of
NASCAR’s toughest drivers to pass-leader Ryan Newman.
Newman
sees Blaney getting a run on him and throws a block. Blaney makes a second move which Newman
blocks. Hamlin leaves Blaney to go high.
Intended
Consequence: Newman blocks Blaney for
the win
Unintended
Consequence: Allows Blaney to get on
Newman’s bumper with a good run.
Seeing
that he can’t win and is now on Newman’s bumper with a good run, Blaney
attempts to push Newman to the win.
Intended
Consequence: Blaney pushes Newman to a
Ford win.
Unintended
Consequence: Bumpers don’t hook up
straight, Blaney turns Newman and the wreck is on. Ryan Newman hits the outside wall, goes
airborne and is struck by Corey LaJoie in the worst possible spot. Denny Hamlin, driving the FedEx Toyota side drafts
Blaney and wins his third Daytona 500 in the second closest finish in the
history of the race. Newman has to be
extracted from his car and is transported to Halifax Medical Center. Corey LaJoie takes a massive hit but escapes.
Unintended
consequences can be negative or positive.
We have touched on some of the negatives. Let’s move to some positives, things that
weren’t intended but provided an unintended positive outcome.
The
wreck puts all of the safety systems to the ultimate test.
Intended
Consequence: Protect the driver in the
event of a major accident.
Unintended
Positive Consequence: Ryan Newman not
only survived the horrific accident but walked out of Halifax Medical Center
within 48 hours much to the relief and amazement of the racing community and
watching world
The
wreck was picked up by and replayed by every news service, sports outlet or
otherwise.
Intended
Consequence: None. It was the news, and
everyone wanted to get the news out. It
is what it is.
Unintended
Positive Consequence: By Tuesday, the
only people who did not know about the wreck were people who had been under a
rock. The entire world knew about
NASCAR, the Daytona 500, the wreck and Ryan Newman. There is a chance some might have tuned in
for the Las Vegas or Phoenix race to see more.
Now
we have discussed positive unintended consequences, the remaining situations
that followed that produced positive and/or negative consequences.
Information
concerning Ryan Newman’s condition through that period was limited to a series
press releases - Monday night, he was in serious condition but injuries were
not life-threatening, Tuesday, he was awake, talking with doctors and family,
walking and joking with staff and finally Wednesday, Ryan Newman was walking
out of the hospital with his daughters.
Intended
Consequence: Limited information
protected the privacy of Ryan and his family and controlled the runaway
speculative “reporting” display we have all seen in other unfortunate incidents.
Unintended
Negative Consequences: The information
void pushed many to speculate the worst.
Veteran NASCAR fans know what the information void means. We went through it with Davey Allison. We went through it with Neil Bonnett. New fans who watched the Neil Bonnett
tribute “Winners: A Neil Bonnett Story”
that ran after the Daytona Truck Race learned what the information void
means.
As
daughter, Kristen explained the call after her father’s wreck at Daytona, “They
said that Dad had had a serious wreck at Daytona and that NASCAR was sending a
jet. Dad had been involved in several
bad wrecks before and never had they sent a jet. So I knew.”
Extended silence usually does not forebode favorable outcomes. Fortunately, and much to the relief of a
watching and praying NASCAR Nation and beyond, this was not the case here.
Unintended
Positive Consequences: Social media
exploded and TV ratings for sports shows soared as everyone with an interest
tried to fill the information void.
Ryan
Newman leaves the hospital. Will not be
able to drive until additional recovery, rehab and medical clearance.
Intended
Consequence: Precautions for Ryan and
the other drivers’ safety. These are the
procedures for re-entering driving after a serious crash.
Unintended
Positive Consequence: Numerous. Ross Chastain gets his first top tier Cup
ride. Chastain’s car owner Chip Ganassi
and Chevrolet’s Jim Campbell give their blessing to allow Chastain, a Chevy
driver to sub for the injured Ford driver.
A tremendous display of cooperation rising far above business interests
for the greater good. Ryan Newman has
more fans than he ever had. Ross
Chastain picked up some fans as well.
NASCAR
releases their official race report saying race ended under green.
Intended
consequence: The Official Race Report is
what NASCAR does. It is their official
record of what occurred at the Daytona 500.
Unintended
consequences: No one considered there
may be questions raised.
With
Newman out of the hospital and everyone breathing easier, things move on. Various folks begin to go back and look at the
end of the race.
February
20, 2020, NASCAR releases on YouTube “Full Race Replay: 2020 Daytona 500 |
NASCAR at Daytona International Speedway”.
It has the following caption:
February
22, 2020 Steve O'Donnell, NASCAR Executive Vice President and Chief Racing
Development Officer, John Bobo, NASCAR Vice President of Racing Operations, Dr.
John Patalak, Senior Director of Safety Engineering
give a Safety Update on the Newman
wreck. (Thanks Speedway Media)
In
it, Steve O’Donnell gives a remarkable timeline on the safety team’s near
immediate response to the crash and the promptness of getting medical attention
to Newman.
Intended
Consequences: Bring the public up to
speed on the responsiveness of the AMR safety crews and medical teams. All are to be commended. Very impressive by any standard. Also discussed were the safety features
NASCAR has incorporated into the cars which performed as designed to allow Ryan
Newman to survive this horrific crash.
The restatement to never being satisfied when it comes to safety.
During
the following Q & A, questions are asked about possibly reevaluating
overtime procedures or last lap caution flag procedures, which O’Donnell
replies “I’d say the overtime rules we’re not going to change. The
caution procedures, I would stand by how that worked for the Daytona 500.”
Intended
Consequence: To restate and show
confidence that procedures are working and were followed.
Unintended
Consequences: None. What could go wrong with this?
Along
the way, various videos from various angles begin to surface showing the
Caution light on before Hamlin and Blaney take the checkered flag. Social Media starts to ask questions.
At
this time, a review of NASCAR’s “FULL replay” on YouTube has a bit of a
problem. The FULL Replay is FULL up to
the 4:06:32 mark. This is when Newman
has turned and is about to hit the wall.
The remainder of the wreck including Newman hitting the wall, getting
upside down, LaJoie hitting Newman, Newman and LaJoie sliding across the finish
line has been edited out. What we see at
this point for “FULL” coverage are two low angle clips of Hamlin and Blaney
crossing the line and Victory Lane. The
most noted, most memorable moment from the entire race - gone. The only thing non-fans know about the race -
gone. This is highly unusual as previous
FULL Replays contain the raw feed (race without commercials) in its entirety
with no edits.
Intended
Consequence: I have no earthly idea.
Unintended
Consequences: I can only speak for
myself but What the heck? The only
conclusion I can draw is the replay contained something in that deleted section
that the posters of the video-NASCAR did not want us to see. What conclusions do you draw?
It
did not help that YouTube had other FULL versions posted that showed the FULL
FOX broadcast including the wreck in its entirety and the finish footage.
February
24, 2020 a recheck of the NASCAR “FULL” replay on YouTube shows that it has
been taken down and is no longer viewable.
Clicks on that link brings up “The uploader has made this video
unavailable” screen.
Current
searches do not even bring it up. You
can see NASCAR highlights or watch the race in condensed versions, but no FULL
Version posted by NASCAR can be found on YouTube.
Intended
Consequence: Remove the edited NASCAR
“FULL” Replay video from any view.
Unintended
Consequences: Draws more attention and
raises more questions that no one seems to want to ask and NASCAR is in no
hurry to answer.
On
the same day NASCAR issues the following statement:
Intended
Consequence: Maybe to correct an
error... or set the record straight?
Unintended
Consequence: Bad optics to start the
season... especially after the earlier O’Donnell statement that he stands by
the Daytona 500 caution flag procedures.
Maybe
I missed it, but to date I’ve found no press conference called to explain the
reversal and how the determination was made that no positions changed as a
result.
Intended
Consequence: Here, we fixed our mistake.
Unintended
Consequence: Sanctioning Body missed a
golden opportunity to explain how they arrived at the reversal and showcase the
procedures and technology used to determine no position changes. A perfect opportunity to address any changes
that are being considered to ensure it’s right going forward. Renew the commitment to get it right the
first time. They missed a chance to
restore any lost credibility and re-instill any lost confidence by answering
questions that may exist and address concerns going forward.
Instead,
they chose a faceless press release. No
one who can ask questions, appear to ask them.
Another week; another race.
Nothing to see here.
Trust
us.
Six
days after the last lap of the Daytona 500 we have another
Green-White-Checkered finish at the next race, Las Vegas. The leader, Joey Logano, who is driving a car
sponsored by the race sponsor-Pennzoil, takes the white flag. Behind him and beyond the start-finish line,
mid-pack William Byron spins. He makes
contact with other cars. There is smoke. There is chance for debris. All cars drive away (any of this sound
familiar?). NASCAR throws the caution flag instead of letting the field race
back to the line for a Checkered Flag finish.
Intended
Consequence: Safety, I assume
Unintended
Consequence: You draw your own
conclusions.
By
the way, if you missed it you can go to YouTube and watch NASCAR’s FULL Replay.. Best I can tell, unlike the last lap of
Daytona replay, the last lap of Vegas is intact and hasn’t been edited.
Oh,
and that Daytona FULL Replay... it’s still MIA.
Pretty
interesting races and series of events.
As
stated at the conclusion of the previous article “The sport may change but
these four Laws don’t. Please don’t
forget that racing forward.”
Daytona
and Vegas are great examples to show these Laws exist and are applicable. Those races also show that recognizing and
heeding still have a long way to go.
Remember,
there is only one who made a career out of unintended negative consequences.
Not
sure that’s the image the sport needs moving forward... unless ACME is coming
on board as the Cup Series Sponsor.