DAMP LEAD CHANGE SCORECARD - ROVAL
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The ROVAL. Part Road Course. Part Oval. All action.
One of the most anticipated races of the season, the ROVAL ran on Sunday. The field of 38 started the Cutoff race on wet weather tires for the first time in recent Cup history. The rain from Hurricane Delta had made it to the Carolinas for the race weekend. It flooded the Xfinity race on Saturday. There was so much rain at the ROVAL on that day that after watching on TV I had to mop up water off my living room floor. Rain was predicted for Sunday, thus the rain tires.
The race had so many variables. It was the second road race of the season. It was a Playoff Cutoff Race. Twelve Playoff drivers entered the race chasing the 2020 Championship but only eight would continue in their quest. After the race as four would be eliminated.
And if that wasn’t enough, now you throw in rain and rain tires. Oh my!
Like Bristol, the previous Cut Off Race – a lot is on the line. It had the makings for tons of action, excitement, and drama.
The rain and rain tires were not a factor for long as Sunday’s race was nothing like Saturday’s Xfinity race that at times resembled a cross between Swamp Buggy and Unlimited Hydroplane races. When the track dried, the rain tires replaced with more traditional slicks and the laps finally completed it was Chase Elliott in Victory Lane. It was his ninth career win, his third win of the season and locked him into the next round of the Playoffs - the Round of Eight. This was his fourth road course win in a row which hasn’t been done in a while.
Elliott was one of eleven drivers to lead the race. He led the race three times for 27 laps which tied him with William Byron for the most laps led. He led 24.8% of the race and together the two of them led almost half the race. Elliott finished 3.895 seconds ahead of second place Joey Logano.
The race was slowed nine times for 16 laps or 14.7% of the race-three cautions for stalled vehicles, two for mandatory stage breaks, two for debris, one for two car incident and one for a mandatory competition caution. NASCAR Loop data reported 2,993 green flag passes for position or 32.2 per green flag lap. The Stage breakdowns were 25-25-59 with Ty Dillon winning Stage One, Ryan Blaney Stage Two before Elliott took the race.
Let’s see what the Lead Change Summary and Scorecard had to say about the 2020 ROVAL Race.
ROVAL ANALYSIS
Using NASCAR’s Cumulative Report, Pit Selection chart and Race Timeline to create the Lead Change Summary and Lead Change Scorecard. These evaluate each of the lead changes giving the fans a clear breakdown of where the lead change occurred (on the track or in the pits-during racing or under caution) and how the lead change occurred. Lead changes are identified by one of eight reasons –
Under caution the lead can change due to
The ROVAL had the following eleven drivers who lead one or more laps in the 109-lap race. Winner Chase Elliott led 27 laps along with William Byron. Here is the leader breakdown:
One of the most anticipated races of the season, the ROVAL ran on Sunday. The field of 38 started the Cutoff race on wet weather tires for the first time in recent Cup history. The rain from Hurricane Delta had made it to the Carolinas for the race weekend. It flooded the Xfinity race on Saturday. There was so much rain at the ROVAL on that day that after watching on TV I had to mop up water off my living room floor. Rain was predicted for Sunday, thus the rain tires.
The race had so many variables. It was the second road race of the season. It was a Playoff Cutoff Race. Twelve Playoff drivers entered the race chasing the 2020 Championship but only eight would continue in their quest. After the race as four would be eliminated.
And if that wasn’t enough, now you throw in rain and rain tires. Oh my!
Like Bristol, the previous Cut Off Race – a lot is on the line. It had the makings for tons of action, excitement, and drama.
The rain and rain tires were not a factor for long as Sunday’s race was nothing like Saturday’s Xfinity race that at times resembled a cross between Swamp Buggy and Unlimited Hydroplane races. When the track dried, the rain tires replaced with more traditional slicks and the laps finally completed it was Chase Elliott in Victory Lane. It was his ninth career win, his third win of the season and locked him into the next round of the Playoffs - the Round of Eight. This was his fourth road course win in a row which hasn’t been done in a while.
Elliott was one of eleven drivers to lead the race. He led the race three times for 27 laps which tied him with William Byron for the most laps led. He led 24.8% of the race and together the two of them led almost half the race. Elliott finished 3.895 seconds ahead of second place Joey Logano.
The race was slowed nine times for 16 laps or 14.7% of the race-three cautions for stalled vehicles, two for mandatory stage breaks, two for debris, one for two car incident and one for a mandatory competition caution. NASCAR Loop data reported 2,993 green flag passes for position or 32.2 per green flag lap. The Stage breakdowns were 25-25-59 with Ty Dillon winning Stage One, Ryan Blaney Stage Two before Elliott took the race.
Let’s see what the Lead Change Summary and Scorecard had to say about the 2020 ROVAL Race.
ROVAL ANALYSIS
Using NASCAR’s Cumulative Report, Pit Selection chart and Race Timeline to create the Lead Change Summary and Lead Change Scorecard. These evaluate each of the lead changes giving the fans a clear breakdown of where the lead change occurred (on the track or in the pits-during racing or under caution) and how the lead change occurred. Lead changes are identified by one of eight reasons –
Under caution the lead can change due to
- Leader Pits-Yellow
- Won Race Off pit road
- Leader Penalized
- Leader Pits-Green
- Leader Crashed from Lead
- Pass on Start (first three laps of race)
- Pass on Restart (first three laps after restart)
- Pass On Track (competitor passes leader to take the lead)
The ROVAL had the following eleven drivers who lead one or more laps in the 109-lap race. Winner Chase Elliott led 27 laps along with William Byron. Here is the leader breakdown:
With the leaders identified, let’s see how the race unfolded with the Lead Change Summary
That resulted in the following Lead Change Scorecard
The Scorecard tells the following story about the race. There were 17 lead changes for the race, four which happened under caution, leaving thirteen lead changes occurring while racing under green. Of those thirteen green flag lead changes, one occurred at the start of the race, six during the nine restarts after caution flag stops. One lead change occurred when the leader wrecked from the lead, leaving FIVE lead changes by a competitor passing the leader during green to take the lead.
Here is the expanded Scorecard broken down by Stages:
Here is the expanded Scorecard broken down by Stages:
With this expanded view you see that the green flag action took place in Stages 1 and 3 as only two green flag passes total occurred in the 25 laps of Stage 2. The Stage 1 green flag passes include a pass on the start, two restart passes and two passes on tracks. The first Pass on Track occurred eight laps into the race with the second as the Stage 1 winning pass four laps from the end. Stage 3 had two Passes on Track, one Leader Crashing From the Lead and three Passes on Restarts, including the winning pass that occurred 17 laps from the end of the race.
OBSERVATIONS
From the Lead Change Summary and the Lead Change Scorecard the following observations were made about the 2020 Bank of America ROVAL 400 -
CONCLUSIONS
The ROVAL was an interesting race with the rain tires early, followed by the slicks. There are several names missing from the leaderboard and several new faces that you just don’t see very often. The all the factors shift the Risk vs. Reward factor? Was there just too much at stake for those at the top of the Points Standings to take those chances and climb to the front? Was this a “racing to not make mistakes vs. racing to win”? Chase Elliott managed to do both.
We’ve looked at a lot of numbers for the ROVAL race and to me it comes down to a math formula… a complex one but a math formula just the same.
RAIN + RAIN TIRES + ROAD COURSE + CUTOFF RACE + (REWARD-RISKS) + EXCESSIVE HYPE = Five Green Flag Passes on Track for the lead.
From this week’s fan reactions, it was the winning formula… five passes in sixty-three laps was good enough.
OBSERVATIONS
From the Lead Change Summary and the Lead Change Scorecard the following observations were made about the 2020 Bank of America ROVAL 400 -
- Pole sitter and last week’s winner, and playoff contender Denny Hamlin led no laps.
- After Brad Keselowski assumed the lead on the first lap, it took eight laps before another driver took the lead. Contrast this to Daytona Road Course which saw three lead changes in the first three laps.
- Only four of the 11 lap leaders were Playoff contenders. Chase Elliott and Brad Keselowski will advance. Clint Bowyer and Kyle Busch led laps but did not make the Cutoff and are eliminated from the Playoffs.
- Although the 12 Playoff contenders started in the first 12 positions of the field, eight contenders led no laps, including Aric Almirola and Austin Dillon who needed valuable points in their attempts to advance.
- Stage One and Two winners were non-qualifying Ty Dillon and eliminated Ryan Blaney. This is the first time in this season’s Playoff that both stages have been won by non-Playoff racers. Non-qualifier Chris Buescher won Stage One last week to become the first non-Playoff racer to win a Playoff Stage, but this week non-contenders won both.
- The finish was similar to the last Road Course race at Daytona. Elliott took the lead and was driving away when a late caution bunched the field. Elliott held the lead on the restart and never looked back, winning by just a tick under four seconds.
- There were 16 Caution flag laps. Four of the lead changes occurred during the nine caution flag periods. All four were a result of the Leader Pitting under Yellow to give up the lead. Two of those went to a racer who did not pit, but stayed on the track.
- The race was peppered with cautions that kept Green Flag Runs short, resulting in no Leader Pit Green lead changes. So all green flag passes were a result of competitive passes on track and not the leader pulling off the track and relinquishing the lead.
- However, Ryan Blaney provided the only Leader Wreck from Lead on lap 74, giving the lead to Ryan Preece for the 12th lead change of the race. This would be the only time Preece would lead, a run consisting of eight laps.
- There were 10 starts and restarts which bunched the field. Passes on Starts and Restarts occurred on six, with one having two passes within the three laps following the drop of the green flag. So in the thirty green flag laps after Starts and Restarts, passes for the lead occurred in six of them, including the race winning pass.
- The remaining 63 green flag laps produced five Pass On Track lead changes. Five racing passes.
CONCLUSIONS
The ROVAL was an interesting race with the rain tires early, followed by the slicks. There are several names missing from the leaderboard and several new faces that you just don’t see very often. The all the factors shift the Risk vs. Reward factor? Was there just too much at stake for those at the top of the Points Standings to take those chances and climb to the front? Was this a “racing to not make mistakes vs. racing to win”? Chase Elliott managed to do both.
We’ve looked at a lot of numbers for the ROVAL race and to me it comes down to a math formula… a complex one but a math formula just the same.
RAIN + RAIN TIRES + ROAD COURSE + CUTOFF RACE + (REWARD-RISKS) + EXCESSIVE HYPE = Five Green Flag Passes on Track for the lead.
From this week’s fan reactions, it was the winning formula… five passes in sixty-three laps was good enough.