Chase Saves the Day - KC Lead Change Scorecard
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Going to change things up a bit from previous Lead Change Scorecard reports and get right to it. I’m not going to first lead you through all the stats to arrive at observations and conclusions. Today, we’ll open with that and see how we got there.
KANSAS CITY BOTTOM LINE
Chase Elliott saved the day in Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas. On Lap 64, Elliott finally got enough clean air to get the nose of his 550 HP Chevy past then leader Kevin Harvick and complete the one and only Non-Yellow Flag, Non-Start or Restart, Non-“Green Flag Leader Pits From Lead”, honest-to-goodness Green Flag Pass on Track Lead Change.
You remember those types of passes, don’t you? We’re racing under Green. I’m leading and you pass me for the lead? It used to be called racing. Now it’s probably a Premiere Quality Pass or something like that.
It was the only such pass in the 267-Lap race.
NBC announcer, Steve Letarte said the “intensity of this race is as high as any this season.” It may have been loaded with intensity but without Chase’s Lap 64 pass for the lead, there is a real chance that all those fans who endured the extreme chill of this October race in Kansas City may have left without seeing a single racing pass for the lead.
Zero racing passes. Nada.
This pass was the first of two Lead Changes for Elliott. Chase opened the race on the pole and with clean air on the nose and a clean track ahead maintained his initial lead to the lap 28 Competition Caution. It was during this caution where he would lose the lead to William Byron, who only took two tires on the caution flag stop. On the restart, Kevin Harvick would take the lead from Byron and hold it until Chase made his racing pass on Lap 64. He would lead the next 16 Green Flag Laps on his way to winning Stage One.
Elliott would get the lead one final time as he passed leader Kevin Harvick on the first lap after the Stage One Conclusion restart. That lead was short-lived as Denny Hamlin passed Chase on the second lap after restart and the #9 would never see clean air or the lead again.
But for that brief shining moment in Stage One, Dawsonsville GA’s favorite son accomplished something no one else could in this 267-lap race-under green and outside of restarts or drivers pitting from the lead, pass another driver for the lead.
Chase Elliott saved the day in Kansas City.
Thank goodness NBC caught it on replay or none of us would have seen it. We didn’t see it live because it occurred while they were at commercial. Wouldn’t missing the only Pass on Track be just so 2020?
KANSAS CITY ANALYSIS
But… But… the race had 17 Lead Changes! Yes, it did. Among eleven drivers. Six were Playoff Contenders. The race winner, Joey Logano ranked fourth among the leaders, but led 45 of the final laps including the lap that paid most. Second place finisher, Kevin Harvick led three times for 85 laps or 31.8% of the race. Even with all those laps led, he won no Stages. Stage win honors went to Second and Third Place Leaders – Denny Hamlin (Stage Two) and Chase Elliott (Stage One).
In addition, there were 6 caution flags for 31 laps (11.6% of the race). This left 236 green flag laps. With a start and six cautions that gave 21 Start/Restart laps, leaving 215 Green Flag Racing Laps (80.5% of the race).
Logano’s margin of victory was .312 seconds. This was his 26th career win, tying him for 31st on the All-Time Win List with Dale Earnhardt Jr. He is currently one win behind Martin Truex, Jr., but most importantly, this win gives him a pass to the Cup finale in Phoenix to compete for the Cup Championship.
There were 37 cars running at the end of the race with 23 on the lead lap.
Now let’s take a look at the LEAD CHANGE SUMMARY and LEAD CHANGE SCORECARD to get a closer look at those passes.
Logano’s margin of victory was .312 seconds. This was his 26th career win, tying him for 31st on the All-Time Win List with Dale Earnhardt Jr. He is currently one win behind Martin Truex, Jr., but most importantly, this win gives him a pass to the Cup finale in Phoenix to compete for the Cup Championship.
There were 37 cars running at the end of the race with 23 on the lead lap.
Now let’s take a look at the LEAD CHANGE SUMMARY and LEAD CHANGE SCORECARD to get a closer look at those passes.
Which can be summarized in this LEAD CHANGE SCORECARD
Here is a SCORECARD broken down by Stages to give you a better idea of the flow of the race.
OBSERVATIONS
Of the seventeen Lead Changes, eight of those occurred during cautions. Before you discount those, remember that the winning pass for Stage 2 and later for the Race occurred while the Yellow Flag was flying. So, you can’t totally discard those because those Lead Changes definitely mattered.
But even those lead changes were hardly “straight up”. Strategy, pit stall position and a couple of timely won the race off passes made up the race.
For strategy, two lead changes occurred when drivers stayed on the track and assumed the lead when the leaders pitted. Another was a strategy call when William Byron took two tires when others took four. Ryan Newman got to lead a lap due to pit stall position. The 21 was leading and brought the field to pit road and pitted before the Start/Finish line and Newman was the first car after that to pit past the line. “Positional Pit Stop” lead changes occur but for no other reason than where the leader pitted in relationship to the other cars. There were several of those. Throw in a couple of one pit crew serviced their car quicker and their driver won the race off (like Logano did to win the race) and that about sums it up the caution flag stops.
But that leaves nine Green Flag Lead Changes-Five on Restarts, three where the Leader relinquished the lead by pitting under Green, and Chase’s solo Green Flag Pass on Track Lead Change. Let’s look at the Start/Restart Passes first.
The race had six caution plus the start for a total of seven Start/Restart pass opportunities. Three of those produced five of the lead changes, while four saw the restart leader hold onto the lead through the first three laps that followed resumption of racing. Two of those three saw multiple passes for the lead which can probably be accounted for by the low horsepower/high drag package used for this race.
All three Stages were longer than the fuel windows, but the Competition Caution prevented any Leader Pits-Green from occurring in Stage One. Stage Three was longer but the two yellow flags for incidents during that Stage broke things up enough to prevent the Leader Pit passes from occurring there. The caution is Stage Two occurred late enough in the stage to force leaders to pit for fuel, which resulted in the three lead changes that occurred between laps 124 and 133.
All that leaves is Chase’s singular Pass on Track on lap 64.
Before we leave, consider this… after Chase made his pass, they ran 179 Green Flag/Non-Start or Restart Laps and there were only three passes for the lead - three times when the Leader pulled off the track to Pit and relinquished the lead to the second place driver. There were zero on-track passes for the lead. Lap 64 to a Lap 267 Checkered Flag is a looonnng way to go without seeing someone pass the race leader.
Only Chase’s Pass on Track Lead Change prevented a goose egg in what should be most “Quality” of Quality Passes-Green Flag Pass on Track Lead Change.
WHAT WE SAW
What we saw Sunday was essentially intermediate track plate racing. The low horsepower basically allowed the drivers to mat the gas the bulk of the day. If you don’t have to lift, then it becomes a game of momentum to complete the pass. The difference between the racing is that on the Superspeedway tracks the straightaways are longer which gives the cars time to build momentum and complete the pass. On the 1.5-mile tracks, the straights are just too short for that to happen. Couple that with the aero sensitivity these cars have with this package, the leader could essentially “mirror drive” to take away the fields’ line, while dirtying their air to reduce their downforce and disrupt their handling to keep them behind. Logano did a masterful job doing that. As a result, if you weren’t out in front in clean air, you could either follow the leader (at a distance) or try to find clean air in the less preferred lines. Neither choice bore much fruit as shown by Chase’s single Pass on Track.
Add to that, Goodyear brought a right-side tire that was used at Charlotte earlier this year. Yeah, in that double header that ran over 900 miles of racing, they produced Six, let me repeat that, Six Pass on Tracks in the two races total. Six.
WHAT WILL WE SEE?
Texas is up next. 1.5-mile track. Similar package. Will it be intermediate plate-aero-momentum racing or something entirely different?
Tune in this weekend and find out!
Stay Safe.
Of the seventeen Lead Changes, eight of those occurred during cautions. Before you discount those, remember that the winning pass for Stage 2 and later for the Race occurred while the Yellow Flag was flying. So, you can’t totally discard those because those Lead Changes definitely mattered.
But even those lead changes were hardly “straight up”. Strategy, pit stall position and a couple of timely won the race off passes made up the race.
For strategy, two lead changes occurred when drivers stayed on the track and assumed the lead when the leaders pitted. Another was a strategy call when William Byron took two tires when others took four. Ryan Newman got to lead a lap due to pit stall position. The 21 was leading and brought the field to pit road and pitted before the Start/Finish line and Newman was the first car after that to pit past the line. “Positional Pit Stop” lead changes occur but for no other reason than where the leader pitted in relationship to the other cars. There were several of those. Throw in a couple of one pit crew serviced their car quicker and their driver won the race off (like Logano did to win the race) and that about sums it up the caution flag stops.
But that leaves nine Green Flag Lead Changes-Five on Restarts, three where the Leader relinquished the lead by pitting under Green, and Chase’s solo Green Flag Pass on Track Lead Change. Let’s look at the Start/Restart Passes first.
The race had six caution plus the start for a total of seven Start/Restart pass opportunities. Three of those produced five of the lead changes, while four saw the restart leader hold onto the lead through the first three laps that followed resumption of racing. Two of those three saw multiple passes for the lead which can probably be accounted for by the low horsepower/high drag package used for this race.
All three Stages were longer than the fuel windows, but the Competition Caution prevented any Leader Pits-Green from occurring in Stage One. Stage Three was longer but the two yellow flags for incidents during that Stage broke things up enough to prevent the Leader Pit passes from occurring there. The caution is Stage Two occurred late enough in the stage to force leaders to pit for fuel, which resulted in the three lead changes that occurred between laps 124 and 133.
All that leaves is Chase’s singular Pass on Track on lap 64.
Before we leave, consider this… after Chase made his pass, they ran 179 Green Flag/Non-Start or Restart Laps and there were only three passes for the lead - three times when the Leader pulled off the track to Pit and relinquished the lead to the second place driver. There were zero on-track passes for the lead. Lap 64 to a Lap 267 Checkered Flag is a looonnng way to go without seeing someone pass the race leader.
Only Chase’s Pass on Track Lead Change prevented a goose egg in what should be most “Quality” of Quality Passes-Green Flag Pass on Track Lead Change.
WHAT WE SAW
What we saw Sunday was essentially intermediate track plate racing. The low horsepower basically allowed the drivers to mat the gas the bulk of the day. If you don’t have to lift, then it becomes a game of momentum to complete the pass. The difference between the racing is that on the Superspeedway tracks the straightaways are longer which gives the cars time to build momentum and complete the pass. On the 1.5-mile tracks, the straights are just too short for that to happen. Couple that with the aero sensitivity these cars have with this package, the leader could essentially “mirror drive” to take away the fields’ line, while dirtying their air to reduce their downforce and disrupt their handling to keep them behind. Logano did a masterful job doing that. As a result, if you weren’t out in front in clean air, you could either follow the leader (at a distance) or try to find clean air in the less preferred lines. Neither choice bore much fruit as shown by Chase’s single Pass on Track.
Add to that, Goodyear brought a right-side tire that was used at Charlotte earlier this year. Yeah, in that double header that ran over 900 miles of racing, they produced Six, let me repeat that, Six Pass on Tracks in the two races total. Six.
WHAT WILL WE SEE?
Texas is up next. 1.5-mile track. Similar package. Will it be intermediate plate-aero-momentum racing or something entirely different?
Tune in this weekend and find out!
Stay Safe.