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Another Look at Attendance 01/25/2017 David Nance |
Reversing the trend in declining race attendance and viewership
is just one of the many issues the Sanctioning Body and the new Cup Series
Sponsor are going to face in the upcoming season. The buzz this last week or so has been that
soon and very soon there will be announcements concerning race procedures
designed to stem this tide and improve the sport's appeal to the younger
generation.
A few weeks ago during the College Football Bowl Season, Dave
"The Godfather" Moody wrote a commentary entitled "College
Football's Bowl Woes Show It's Not Just a NASCAR Problem" in which he
painted the picture that fans only have to tune in to the numerous bowl games
to see an attendance situation worse than NASCAR's.
In his commentary he declares that of the forty-one College
Football bowl games, only the three playoff game are meaningful. He then compares those three games to
NASCAR's ten "meaningful" Chase races and through his analysis of the
attendance at College Football's forty one bowl games and comparison to the
NASCAR Chase, Moody downplays and ultimately deflects the issue of NASCAR's
declining attendance.
He opens by stating that attendance decline is not just a NASCAR
problem but is found throughout major sports and then looks at the attendance
and ticket sales of various bowl games played, to make his case. Moody uses the success of the Rose Bowl as
the example that not all of College Football bowls are "gloom and
doom", but high attendance is a rarity indeed. He then explains that even in this season of
declining bowl attendance, ESPN can still make a profit from near empty
stadiums through TV viewership and predicts this model may be the wave of the
future for other sports… including NASCAR.
"The Godfather" closes with this quote to try point
out just how great we NASCAR fans really have it-
"Here’s some good news for NASCAR. Today’s oversaturated,
'More Is Better' slate of College Bowl games has diminished the importance of
all but the final three… semifinal and
final… events. NASCAR has only 10
playoff games, and each one includes every fan’s favorite team, whether they’re
playing for the championship or not."
I can agree with his assessment that the numerous Bowl games
have diminished the importance of all but the three playoff games, but have
difficulty with his application to NASCAR and especially its Chase.
It's true that NASCAR has a 10-race playoff and each race is
important... to the Chasers. For the 24, then 28, then 32 and finally 36 teams
of Non-Chasers or eliminated Chasers those Chase races are just as meaningless
as those oversaturated Bowls of which Mr. Moody is so critical. Sadly, those race teams who dedicate almost
30% (27.777778 % to be exact) of their annual budget and resources to compete
in those 10 Chase races, are relegated to a role not unlike the air-time
fillers description Mr. Moody attaches to the meaningless thirty-eight bowls.
Some might say, "Wait, those races aren't meaningless to
those teams. Even though they aren't
competing for the Championship, they are still competing for the race win. That chance to win the race makes those races
meaningful to the Non-Chasers and Eliminated Chasers as well."
I could agree with that if it were true. However, if you look at what has actually
happened in the thirty Chase races run since NASCAR implemented the current
"Win, You Are In/Elimination" Chase format (aka "Fifth Worst or
Better Advances/Competition Caution Championship) in 2014, each and every one
of those thirty races has been won by a driver who qualified for the
Chase. Thirty for thirty. Perfection.
That's better than Clemson's Deshaun Watson's passing performance
against Alabama in the Championship game.
You might say, "Well Doofus, you have to win to qualify for
the Chase, so all the winners are in the Chase.
Wouldn't you expect the Chasers to win the Chase races? Plus, they have to win to advance so they
have more at stake and drive harder!"
That may all be true but how is it that once the Chase starts
that non-Chasers who have won and won big in previous years like a Ryan Newman
can't slip in a win in those last 10 races?
Non-Chasers could find Victory Lane under the previous Chase formats and
did so quite frequently… seventeen times to be exact. However, under this format, a Non-Chaser
winning a Chase race seems almost as likely to happen as the Ohio State University
Buckeyes scoring a single point in the meaningful semi-final game against the
eventual CFB Champion, Clemson. If that
is the case, then all of these teams' efforts after the Chase begins is in fact
meaningless.
I also find it interesting that under this format, once Chasers
are eliminated they can't seem to find their way back to Victory Lane for the
rest of the Chase. Since going to the
current Chase format (FWOBA/CCC) only two Chasers have won races after being
eliminated-Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Each have won two Chase races
after their performance in the Chase sent each to the Chase sidelines. This means eligible Chasers have won 26 of
the 30 Chase races. Even that's better
than Watson's passing stats in the final game.
That too seems kind of odd.
You would think that a previous race winner could win again after being
eliminated from the Chase. History is proving however that Chase elimination
somehow means race elimination, adding to the meaninglessness of those races
for those teams.
One point Mr. Moody fails to recognize that even if my favorite
football team is playing in one of these "meaningless" bowls, I can
still tune in if I want to and see them play.
Unfortunately, due to the current state of NASCAR Chase TV race coverage
that cannot be said if my favorite driver/team isn't still in the Chase. Currently, if you aren't Chasing you're not
being shown. That is sad, because after
the initial lineup, if your favorite driver is a Non-Chaser and isn't in a
wreck, getting passed by or pitting with a Chaser, with the exception of Kyle
Larson (who obviously didn't get the memo) you'd never know they were there. If we didn't have the ever-present crawler,
they would be non-existent. So having "every fans favorite team"
participating in the 10 "meaningful" Chase races means little to
their fans unless they are actually there at the track.
Mr. Moody is right though; attendance is declining in all
sports, including NASCAR. However, just
because NASCAR attendance is sinking slower than other sports doesn't give me
the same warm, fuzzy feeling he and NASCAR management share. Sinking is still sinking and sunk is still
sunk. Hopefully, the upcoming announcements
can change that trend.
I'll agree with Mr. Moody
that there is good news for NASCAR fans but I cannot agree with his source of
the good news. He attributes the
"good news" to the Sanctioning Body's use of the most divisive
element in the sport today, the Chase.
Although many think the Chase is the greatest thing since "Sliced
Bread" (I'll leave it to you whether that's Joey Logano or the original
grain product), the last time I checked it has done little to slow the decline
in attendance and reverse the troubling trend discussed in his commentary.
No, the good news for this race fan comes from three
sources. First, there is a new series
sponsor that hopefully can bring to the sport what it is sorely lacking. Secondly, this sponsor has experience in
racing and hopefully understands that better racing makes everything better and
will push to see the "product" improve. I'm talking about improving racing not
inserting contrivances like competition cautions, debris cautions, quarter or
halftime breaks or competition clocks, but "line 'em up, drop the flag and
let 'em race" kind of racing.
Finally, there is a new day, a new season coming and in those three
there is hope...
And this hope, not Mr. France's Chase, is racing's good news for
me.