After 200 ~ Then What?
|
|
We’re
almost there and I couldn’t be happier.
Like
the endless political commercials we can’t avoid during the election season,
the hyped and overhyped “Kyle Busch 200 Wins in the Top Three Touring Series
Countdown” aka KB200WI4TSC publicity campaign has about gotten the better of
me.
But
it’s almost over.
Don’t
get me wrong-It’s not that I don’t like Kyle Busch. Well, truthfully I’m not a big fan of his, but
as a race fan I do appreciate what he can do in a race vehicle... most of the
time-
Nice move on Johnny Benson in his favorite
series
Thank goodness for SAFER Barriers in
Chicagoland
It’s
not that I don’t think this is a significant milestone in a tremendous racing
career. It is. He set it as a personal goal, a very high
goal and he is about to achieve it. For
that, he deserves recognition. It’s a
big deal.
But
if I understand it correctly, initially it was his goal. Now others, many others have made it into
this significant milestone in NASCAR.
The fact that it was set at 200 automatically makes it into something
else though and that’s what I have trouble with.
He
is already being crowned as the winningest NASCAR driver. Speculation is he’ll easily surpass the 250
total win mark. Redefining the method
of measurement is blurring established lines and making it into something that
maybe it’s not. It may be great
publicity but unifying the fan base it’s not.
Not
sure anyone cares about that anymore.
I’ve
been following racing for quite a while now and this is the first time I can
recall, win totals from multiple series being totaled together for some new win
total. Well, I take that back I have
seen it somewhere else-Darrell Waltrip’s Wikipedia page where all his wins in
every series at Nashville Speedway were combined to give him the title of the
“winningest driver” on that track-
“Waltrip
also holds the all-time track record 67 wins at the Fairgrounds
Speedway in Nashville,
Tennessee, including NASCAR, USAC, ASA, and local Late Model Sportsman NASCAR-sanctioned series
races.”
Sound
familiar?
Kyle
Busch is one heck of a driver-no doubt about it. He’s the winningest driver in the Truck
series. He can wear that crown all he
wants. Has the most wins in Xfinity
series, too. He can wear that crown as
well. He has earned them both.
I’m
just not ready to put some mega crown for some redefined measurement of
accomplishments on him just yet. But if
folks really have to do things like that then while you’re at it, give him the
winningest Cup Stage format race winner.
Probably by the end of the season he’ll be first in wins in the new aero
setup races.
But
this KB200WI4TSC, I just don’t know.
Fans
say, well you can’t compare Busch to Petty.
Different times. Different
rules. Different tracks. Different racing. Different competition levels. All true.
Busch fans say that Truck and Xfinity series wins are comparative to Petty’s
Cup wins, as the competition is better in those lower series. Might be, but if the same driver can crawl in
a truck and win on average 1 in 3 starts, get in an Xfinity ride and win 1 in 4
then Cup should be pretty close. 1 win
every 10 Cup starts is pretty impressive, but 10% isn’t 25% or 33%. Maybe the level of competition plays a
factor.
But
nothing that has been or is going to be written or said is going to stop this KB200WI4TSC train. Now, it’s not whether he is going to get his
200 combo wins but when and where will he get that one? This week at Fontana? Somewhere else down the road? To paraphrase Kyle, turn on the TV and watch
the... race!
Personally,
I hope he gets 200 and the sooner the better.
Maybe the hype will settle down some and we can move on to something
else.
Then
comes the next question... What’s the next milestone for Kyle Busch? What does the media move onto?
Career
Cup wins? I think we can all agree that
Richard Petty’s 200 career Cup wins are out of the question unless Kyle
competes at his current level while driving for as long as Hershel McGriff or
Morgan Shepherd. I think that one is safe.
But
this hype has started as career win comparisons have started between him and
Jimmie Johnson.
Most
wins in the “Modern Era”? That has started
as well. That one makes Richard Petty
less formidable but there are still some pretty heavy hitters ahead of him.
Surprisingly,
no one is talking Cup Championships. 1
(or 2 depending if you are a purist or a modern day mashup-er)
vs 3 drivers with 7 is a bit of a stretch at this point. If he rips off a string of five in a row
(which with major competition nearing retirement plus the Gen-7 car is entirely
possible) like Jimmie Johnson did them he’ll be in that discussion.
Winningest
active driver? He is currently the
second winningest active driver in Cup wins behind Jimmie Johnson. He has a decent gap between him and third, so
if Jimmie retires first he will automatically inherit that title and keep it
for probably as long as he drives. But
once he steps out of the car that title will then fall on someone else.
So
what’s next? How can he truly make his
mark in Cup that will last after his career has ended?
Personally,
I think the most objective way to evaluate a driver’s stature no matter their time,
competition, rules, cars, race format, you name it is to look at where they
rank in wins for the time period they were on the track. In other words, while
they were on the track, during their “era” were they the winningest driver?
Sounds
pretty fair to me. If a driver is truly
great, they should be the one who hoisted the trophy up the most shouldn’t
they?
Since
the beginning of NASCAR there have been 2940 drivers start a Cup race. Out of all those drivers, only nine have
achieved the distinction that while they were on the track, no other driver won
more races.
For
this evaluation, a driver’s “era’s” start year was the season they competed in
5 or more Cup races or got their first Cup win, whichever is earliest. Using that criteria, those nine drivers
include-
Herb
Thomas 1949-1957 48 wins 2 Championships
Lee Petty 1949-1965 54 wins 3 Championships
Junior Johnson 1955-1966 50 wins
Ned Jarrett 1959-1966 50 wins 2 Championships
Richard Petty 1958-1992 200 wins 7 Championships
Darrell Waltrip 1972-2000 84 wins 3 Championships
Dale Earnhardt 1979-2001 76 wins 7 Championships
Jeff
Gordon 1993-2016 93 wins 4 Championships
Jimmie
Johnson 2001- ongoing 83 wins 7 Championships
That’s
not very many drivers. An awful lot of
top-notch drivers are not on that list.
The Flocks, Joe Weatherly, Curtis Turner, Buck Baker got covered by
Thomas and Lee Petty. David Pearson,
Cale Yarborough, Bobby Allison and many other drivers, Hall of Fame drivers
were engulfed in the Richard Petty era.
Darrell, Dale and Jeff covered even more top drivers, just like Jimmie
Johnson is doing to this day.
So
where is Kyle?
Everyone
by now knows that Kyle entered the Cup scene in 2004 and since that time has 52
Cup wins and one Championship. The
ranking of active drivers in the Kyle Busch “era” includes-
Jimmie
Johnson 71
Kyle Busch 52
Kevin Harvick 41
Denny
Hamlin 32
Brad
Keselowski 28
Kurt Busch 22
Joey Logano 22
Martin
Truex, Jr 19
Clint Bowyer 10
Ryan Newman 9
So
now during the Kyle Busch “era” (2004-on-going) Kyle still has some work to do
if he is going to catch Jimmie to become the winningest driver in his
“era.”. Can he win 20 more races than
Jimmie between now and the end of his career?
He’s still young and with the changes on the horizon there is no reason
to believe he won’t continue winning.
How long will it take all depends on if and at what rate Jimmie Johnson
can find his way to Victory Lane again and if Kyle’s win rate going forward
will be at the 2018 rate or the 2017 rate or somewhere in between. Of course, it all comes to an end if he were
to pull a Carl Edwards and abruptly retire.
If
Kyle does pass Jimmie’s totals can anyone surpass Kyle on his win totals before
he retires and ends his “era”? As it
currently stands, it will be tough unless someone catches fire and puts up some
phenomenal numbers pretty quickly.
Harvick, Kurt and Ryan are late in their careers and probably don’t have
time to close their gaps. Things will
have to turn significantly for Hamlin and Keselowski to overcome the
significant gaps they face ahead. Joey
appears to be young enough and on enough of a roll but it is doubtful that even
he can catch Kyle before the end of the Kyle “era.” Joey is better poised to work his way to the
top during the Joey “era” (2009-ongoing) where his 22 wins are just 18 behind
Kyle, who has 40 wins and 21 wins behind Jimmie in that same time frame.
It
will be interesting to watch. Of course
from here on out every win will be added to the mashed up three series win
total title. As he continues to climb
the career Cup wins ladder we’ll be reminded of those names he passes-Lee Petty
is just 2 wins ahead and Rusty Wallace 3.
Then he’ll have to cross a 21 win gap to get to Dale Earnhardt. If he can he may also secure his spot as the
winningest driver in his “era” to become only the tenth driver to hold the
distinction of being the winningest driver while they were on the track.
Kyle
Busch having the most wins in his “era” would be a mark that could never be
taken away from him and unlike the current KB200WI4TSC is one that wouldn’t
divide the fan base and diminish the accomplishments of others. Arguments and conflict may be good for the
sport’s interest and increase internet clicks.
But it would sure be nice to have something the bulk of us could come
together in agreement on. Seeing Kyle
Busch become the winningest driver during his “era” might just accomplish that.
Wouldn’t
that be a welcome change?
It
might be his greatest accomplishment ever.